Soccer Tip Betting Update
Soccer-Tip Free Newsletter
It’s been about 2 months since our last free newsletter
so I thought it time for a quick update.
The short and sweet of it is that Louise has produced
some decent upwards progress since then.
Looking back at the Nov 16th newsletter
Copy at http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/soccer-betting/soccer-tip-whats-new/
one thing I was looking at was the idea of rolling bank style compounding
for action since June 26th. This was the date we switched to the current
four league only approach.
I used three different percentages.
– 17% was a rough Kelly theorem estimate.
– 8.5% was half Kelly
– 5% was an arbitrary more cautious value.
A £1000 start bank was assumed.
The table below indicates the values churned out of my spreadsheet
both on Nov 16th and today Jan 19th
% to stake
So quite decent jumps all round since November.
Exactly what we want to see.
Good work Louise.
Tthose figures relate to June 26th onwards.
Much much higher would be churned out if analysing
the four league data going back extra years.
There are two spreadsheets here if you want to look at them.
A – Data from June 26th only ( used for figs above )
B – The bigger dataset with extra years
Do note the PS section on the original Nov 16th newsletter as per link above.
Really just some real world pragmatism to apply to spreadsheet analysis.
Service fees of course you need to account for as well.
If you have a £50 betting bank it’s not worth joining up.
If you have a £5k betting bank service fees will be almost insignificant.
For those on smaller banks a few tips to maximise longer term growth
may be to fund the monthly fee out of a separate pot each month instead of
having it eat a chunk out of your compounding bank.
Compounding is like a snowball rolling down a hill.
It gets greater in volume on each turn.
But regularly biting chunks out of it will reduce
the size of the snowball at the bottom of the hill.
Also ponder the concept of you adding to your betting bank
a monthly contribution to suit you pocket. That way your bank
can grow over the year via additional contribution and hopefully
from a positive return on the bets.
Both those will be good ideas assuming positive growth
Just like with a stocks and shares ISA however positive growth
can never be guaranteed with betting.
The nature of the beast will always be one of educated risk.
Those of you with larger banks may take a different approach.
Perhaps one with more emphasis to skimming and setting aside profits.
A “happy days” point is when you have reclaimed any original bank
as set aside profit and are left with a similar figure still invested.
The concept that all clients should do exactly the same thing
staking wise is an idea I myself would file in the silly bin.
Other Bits and Bobs
The MLS season finished in December
and right now Louise’s odds model is focussed
on Scottish Premier and League 1 action.
She has also started doing the rare double and treble
in addition to the normal singles.
Only two so far ( both winners ) and a further one this weekend.
On my to do list is a mini article explaining why doubles etc
are normally silly mug punter fodder but on the flip
side they can be a smart shrewd thing.
Like any tool much depends on the skill or idiocy of the user.
And if you recall all on our free newsletter list and all full members
have their name in the hat for two months free full membership here.
Each month will produce a prize winner.
Highly organised as I am I got round to making the December draw today.
The January winner I sorted too.
So congrats to Dailyr and Anderson whom I contacted earlier about their prize.
Anyhow enough for now
If you do want to get on the train and join up, feel free to do so on our home
page taking advantage of the £1 for two weeks intro offer.
A log in password for the full member area should be emailed automatically
after you join up.