Are You A Betting Robot?
Soccer-Tip Free Newsletter
It was another good weekend last weekend.
Two league 1 matches were highlighted as over 2.5 goal value.
Mk Dons 5 – 3 Northampton
Rochdale 0 – 4 Oxford Utd
So a total of 12 goals across the two matches.
Louise had two 1.5 pt singles
and a 0.5 pt double.
If you missed last weeks free newsletter
it contains reference to longer term bank building stats.
And there is a bit more data here
Not every selection is a winner of course.
As you can see noted strike rate is about 60%
High strike rate with a decent edge is
a great combo for bank building.
Some people like 20/1 horses.
Not so pleasing to me with such stuff
is the need to accommodate losing runs.
Over 1000 such bets you might expect
to hit a maximum losing run in the region
of 135 losers on the trot !
How much of your typical 20/1 Horse Tipsters
effort will go to hyping up his big priced infrequent winner
when he hits one and how much time will he dedicate
to highlighting a 135 losing run potential 🙂
20/1 strategies are of course not unviable.
It is more so a case that a simple rule of thumb
that most using them under appreciate
the size of bank required.
That is why they go broke even if they
do work hard to find a degree of positive edge.
A long losing run can also sap moral.
Most especially if aggression level was
too high to start with.
A computer could be programmed to bet
and would continue to do so through a long losing run
as long as long term data indicated it a positive idea to do so.
Said computer could ride the poor streak and sail on to
a positive long term future.
Humans are a touch more prone to abandoning ship
or looking for another ship when the first bad wave hits them.
The Mr Spock computer may say "batten down the hatches and sail on
..this was all logically anticipated and the long term logic remains good"
Humans would probably have more success with
well considered lower strike approaches if the
only time they looked at results was once a year.
It is the living and suffering the downturn that gets them.
Short term emotional turmoil muddies the longer term
path they set off on. Perhaps instead of sweating
each result daily they should give their bank and
a clear set of staking instructions to a trusted mate and
tell them to email them back in 1 year with
results data. Assuming net positive over the year
would you worry much about a sticky patch 6 months ago
that you did not live or sweat in real time?
Such an approach could design out the weak
mental link in the chain.
But of course it raises other problems.
Few would really wants to hand over their betting bank to a mate.
So if humans are indeed over sensitive as a species to
short term negative statistical scatter I say best to accept
the fact that you are not a betting robot as a design constraint
and focus on higher strike rate approaches less prone to induce
such natural emotion in us average mere humans.
But a 20/1 winner makes great tipster marketing headlines of course.
Thought of a big return for small stakes is also what drives
most mug punterdom. Even think of the lottery where you
might expect to lose about 40% of your turnover.
Financial management for a total mug punter is often all down
to what is in his back pocket that day. The concept of
a ring fenced bank of investment cash to be managed appropriately
is never even considered as a concept.
Even with a 60 % strike rate such as Louise’s output here
one can expect a losing run of 8 on the trot over 1000 bets.
Such a figure is much easier for the average
human brain to deal with than 135.
I for one find higher strike rate approaches
I’d rather be happy 6 days out of 10
than only once in a blue moon.
Plus of course there is the bank growth ability
of high strike rate decent edge approaches.
Each to their own I guess however.
If interested in Louise’s advice for this weekend
note that she usually sends it out on a Wednesday
or Thursday evening.
It was Wednesday last week so may be the same again this week.
It’s £1 for two weeks if you want to use the intro deal offer on
our home page.
Book in early and it will be emailed to you when she sends it.
Book in later and it will be there waiting for you in the member area.
Best of luck
PS The spreadsheets and results page data
I have yet to update with last weekend’s results
so there is more profit to book in from last weekend’s
3 winners from 3 selections when I next update them.